I agree with your analysis eric356. In addition to point 4, the retention rate among young JWs is horrific with them losing over 60% according to Pew. So not only are they facing a brain drain in terms of a diversity of experience that adult converts would bring, but they're facing an aging population. Couple that with trend among the 2nd and 3rd generation JW males to not "reach out" and you're looking at the low level leadership positions of elders getting older and older by the day. They'll need to adjust to that as well. I think that's why they consolidated the book study.
neverending - I agree that what you've described certainly could happen but that will depend on who the move onto the GB. Right now there are what, 8 members? I think this is the lowest number in 30 years. They will likely appoint some more, maybe after Barr dies. The new appointees could change the dynamic. But, in order for your senario to play out (in my opinion) is to have someone very creative like Franz. And, that's really what upper level management in the WTS is sorely lacking. Just take a look at the latest "generation" teaching. It's so backward that it really doesn't make sense to even the most devoted JWs. Now, Franz was nuts, but at least when you read his work, it was at least creative in a kind of conspiracy theory sort of way. Wacky but with just enough logic that some would buy it!
I continue to believe that while the WTS will look much different in 20 years, they will still be around reeking havoc.